A Logical Benchmark
Can management deliver the Required Business Performance®
to support the stock price?
Required Business Performance® ,
or RBP® , is the revenue growth
necessary to support the current stock price. Transparent Value recognizes that
a company’s stock price implies certain business performance and uses its proprietary
RBP® Methodology to determine
each company’s Required Business Performance® .
Next, using historical data, Transparent Value quantitatively determines the likelihood
management will deliver the Required Business Performance® .
We call this likelihood RBP® Probability,
and we call the likelihood management will fail to deliver the Required Business
Performance® the Behavioral Risk
Indicator.
We believe stock prices are a reflection of the collective assumptions for future
performance by investors. However we also believe these assumptions can become biased
due to investors’ systematic behavioral biases, causing misalignment between stock
prices and managements’ ability to deliver. We therefore feel that knowing how much
revenue growth management must deliver to support the current stock price is critical
to assessing the risk profile and relative attractiveness of stocks. This approach
is the basis for used in our proprietary investment methodology.
Transparent Value’s RBP® Methodology
aims to link a company’s current stock price to what its management does on a day-to-day
basis and its ability to deliver in the future. We believe that investors’ systematic
behavioral biases can affect stock prices causing a misalignment between the stock
price and management’s ability and as a result we believe investors often unknowingly
expose themselves to behavioral risk, which may hamper returns.